In 2011, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) released the first comprehensive assessment of the projected effects of climate change on the state’s critical systems and natural resources over the next century.5 ClimAID: the Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State was compiled by more than 50 scientists to serve as a critical tool for planners, policymakers, farmers, local governments and residents planning for New York State’s future. This document incorporates information from the latest updates of ClimAID, released in September 2014.
The report provides projections of several key climate variables in seven geographic regions of New York, assesses the projected effects of climate change in eight sectors (water resources, coastal zone, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation, telecommunications and public health), and provides recommendations for adapting to the predicted changes.
Among ClimAID’s most important findings:
• Annual average temperatures have risen about 5 °F. since 1900, with winter warming exceeding 4.4 °F.
• Sea level along New York's coastline has risen about a foot since 1900.
• Mean annual precipitation, intense precipitation and heavy downpours, and year-to-year variability have increased between 1900 and 2012.
Without a dramatic decrease in the global generation of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, critical changes can be expected in New York’s climate over the next century:
• Annual average temperatures in New York State will rise by 5.3 to 10.1 °F. by the 2080s.
• Average regional precipitation will increase 4 to 15 percent by the 2080s, with most of the projected increase forecast in winter months. Larger increases are projected in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme precipitation events.
• Short-term droughts will become more frequent.
• The number and duration of extreme heat events will increase.
• Along the seacoast and tidal portion of the Hudson River (to the Federal Dam at Troy), sea level could rise to approximately 6 feet by 2100.